Nigeria exported approximately 80% of its crude oil production in the first quarter of 2026, despite growing domestic refinery demand — raising fresh questions about the effectiveness of the country’s Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) framework and the persistent gap between policy targets and operational delivery.
Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that of the 139.93 million barrels produced between January and March, only 28.5 million barrels — representing just over 20% — reached local refineries, including the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote facility. The remaining 111.43 million barrels were shipped to international markets.
The DCSO framework had allocated 61.9 million barrels for domestic supply during the quarter, while producers collectively offered 68.7 million barrels. Yet actual domestic deliveries fell far short: only 9.2 million barrels were supplied in January, 9.1 million in February, and 10.1 million in March. The NUPRC attributed the persistent shortfall primarily to pricing disagreements between crude producers and domestic refiners under the current “willing buyer, willing seller” arrangement.
Dangote’s Import Dependency Lays Bare the Problem
The consequences of the domestic supply gap have been most visible at the Dangote Refinery, which increasingly relied on imported crude in 2025 due to inadequate local feedstock. The refinery is estimated to have imported over 200 million barrels of crude during the year, sourcing oil from the United States, Brazil, Angola, and other countries to sustain operations — a situation that undermines the economic rationale for Africa’s largest refinery.
The NUPRC affirmed its commitment to achieving the Federal Government’s energy sufficiency objectives through effective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, signalling that further regulatory measures to close the supply-delivery gap may be forthcoming.
Source: allafrica.com