Analysis | April 23, 2026
As military hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran escalate into a broader conflict, the African energy sector faces growing uncertainties that could reshape markets, fuel prices and economic stability across the continent.
The conflict, now in its eighth week, has created one of the worst global energy crises in decades . The United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran on February 28, 2026, triggering retaliatory actions and sparking fears of wider confrontation across the Middle East. These developments have rattled global energy markets and raised concerns about supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped.
Ceasefire Holds, But Risks Remain
In a significant diplomatic breakthrough, a fragile two-week ceasefire was announced in early April 2026, brokered by Pakistan, Oman, Türkiye, and Egypt . The African Union officially welcomed the truce, with Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf describing it as “a critical opportunity to ease the suffering of populations affected both directly and indirectly” .
However, the ceasefire is set to expire on April 23, 2026—tomorrow—and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz put the fate of new talks into question . Over the weekend of April 19-20, a US-Iran standoff halted tanker traffic through the strait. Iran initially said it would reopen the passage, then reversed its decision after President Donald Trump announced a US Navy blockade would remain. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces fired on several vessels, and the US reported seizing an Iranian-flagged cargo ship .
Even if a lasting deal emerges, analysts warn it could take months for oil shipments to return to normal levels .
Strait of Hormuz and Energy Risks: By the Numbers
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical artery for global energy flows. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) , oil production shut-ins linked to the war will rise to 9.1 million barrels per day in April 2026—an unprecedented disruption .
Indicator Pre-War (Feb 2026) Current (April 2026) Peak Forecast
Brent Crude ~$70/barrel $96.25/barrel $115/barrel (Q2 2026)
US Crude ~$65/barrel $87.88/barrel –
Global Shut-ins – 9.1 million b/d –
Source: S&P Global, EIA, Associated Press
Brent crude traded at roughly $70 per barrel before the conflict, spiked to more than $119 at times, and closed April 19 at $90.38 before jumping 6.5% to $96.25 following the weekend standoff . The EIA now expects Brent to peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 before easing as shut-ins decline .
The EIA has warned that global oil demand growth will slow to 0.6 million b/d in 2026, down from 1.2 million b/d in previous forecasts, as higher prices curb consumption .
Africa’s Exposure: Import-Dependent Economies Hit Hardest
Africa’s energy landscape is intricately linked with global markets. Several African nations rely heavily on fuel imports from the Gulf, leaving them vulnerable to global supply shocks. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Seychelles, Uganda, Mauritius, and Kenya source more than half of their energy from the region .
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of a potential “Black April” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the entire month, noting that crude and product losses would double compared to March .
Country-by-Country Impact (As of April 2026)
Nigeria
Petrol prices have risen sharply from N730–900 per liter (approx. $0.53–$0.65) before the war to N1,200–N1,400 per liter ($0.87–$1.01) in many areas—a rise of roughly 35–65% . The Dangote Refinery raised its gantry price to N1,275 per liter for petrol and N1,950 for diesel on April 8, citing global market realities .
However, the Federal Government has defended the price, noting that Nigeria’s petrol cost of $0.88 per liter remains 50% lower than the global average, compared to $1.70 in the US and higher prices in India and South Africa .
South Africa
Fuel prices were raised on April 1, with petrol increasing by 3.06 rand ($0.18) per liter and diesel by 7.37–7.51 rand ($0.43–$0.44). The government introduced a temporary 3.00 rand ($0.18) per liter reduction in the general fuel levy through May 5 to ease the burden.
Ghana
The National Petroleum Authority set new price floors for April, raising petrol to 13.30 cedis ($1.21) per liter and diesel to 17.10 cedis ($1.55) —increases of approximately 15% and 19% respectively . President John Mahama has raised the prospect of a formal supply agreement with Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery .
Kenya
Kenya kept fuel prices unchanged for the March-April cycle by using the Petroleum Development Levy to offset increases. Authorities are exploring additional sourcing, including from Dangote Refinery .
Ethiopia
Diesel prices have jumped from $80 to $230 per barrel and gasoline from $70 to $150. Daily diesel supply halved from 9.2 million liters to 4.5 million. The government is providing approximately $1.67 billion in subsidies .
Zimbabwe
Fuel prices surged through March, pushing both blended petrol and diesel above $2 per liter for the first time—increases of more than 40% within a month. The government approved plans to raise the ethanol blend in petrol from 5% to 20% to stretch supplies .
Zambia
The government declared a national emergency, suspending excise duty while zero-rating VAT on petrol and diesel imports from April 1 to June 30 .
Mauritius
Energy Minister Patrick Gervais Assirvaden warned of an energy crisis that could surpass the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government secured emergency tankers from Singapore carrying 33,500 metric tons of fuel .
South Sudan
Power rationing was introduced in the capital Juba, with some areas experiencing 12-hour power cuts as diesel shortages forced the Juba Electricity Distribution Company to manage limited generation supplies .
Oil Producers: A Mixed Blessing
While import-dependent economies struggle, Africa’s oil-exporting nations—Nigeria, Angola, and Libya—might benefit from higher global prices. However, this potential windfall is tempered by structural challenges.
In Nigeria, oil production remains below capacity due to chronic issues like pipeline vandalism, theft, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure. Unless production efficiency improves, the country may not fully capitalize on higher global prices. Nevertheless, higher oil revenues could strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance and bolster foreign reserves.
Downstream Pressure on Fuel Prices
Energy experts warn that rising crude costs will continue to be passed through to petrol and diesel prices across Africa. If Brent trends toward $100–$115 per barrel, fuel prices could climb further, intensifying cost-of-living pressures.
The EIA forecasts that US gasoline prices will peak at a monthly average of close to $4.30 per gallon in April, with diesel topping $5.80 per gallon—a global trend that will inevitably affect African import markets .
Economic and Social Spillovers
Beyond energy costs, the broader economic implications are significant. Rising oil prices feed into higher transport and food costs across value chains. The African Union has pointed to disruptions in fuel supplies that have driven inflation and increased the cost of basic commodities across African economies already under strain .
Analysts warn that inflationary pressures could mount if geopolitical uncertainties persist, potentially slowing economic growth and straining household incomes.
Strategic Considerations: Africa’s Response
The conflict underscores Africa’s vulnerability to distant geopolitical shocks. Key policy responses emerging across the continent include:
- Diversification of Supply Sources: Several nations, including Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania, are securing imports from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery as an alternative to Gulf sources .
- Subsidy and Tax Interventions: Countries like South Africa (temporary fuel levy cut), Zambia (VAT zero-rating), and Ethiopia ($1.67 billion in subsidies) are implementing fiscal measures to cushion consumers .
- Strategic Reserves: Botswana is expanding storage capacity to raise national reserves to 102 days and leasing coastal storage in Mozambique and Namibia .
- Fuel Substitution: Zimbabwe is increasing ethanol blending from 5% to 20% to reduce reliance on imports .
- Diplomatic Engagement: The AU has expressed full support for ongoing talks in Islamabad and commended mediation efforts by Oman, Türkiye, and Egypt .
Outlook: What Comes Next?
The immediate future hinges on two critical factors:
- Ceasefire Extension: The current two-week truce expires April 23. If renewed, oil prices may stabilize; if not, further spikes are likely.
- Strait of Hormuz Access: Even with a diplomatic deal, analysts say it could take months for oil shipments to return to normal levels due to backed-up tanker traffic, shipowner caution, and damaged energy infrastructure .
The IEA has predicted that this crisis will accelerate the global energy transition, with rapid shifts toward renewable energy, nuclear power, and electric vehicles—a development that could reshape Africa’s energy future in the medium to long term .
Conclusion
The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has sent reverberations through global energy markets. For Africa, the implications are multifaceted and severe.
Higher crude prices may offer short-term windfalls for oil-exporting nations like Nigeria and Angola. Yet, for the majority of African countries—which depend on imported refined fuels—the crisis has driven sharp increases in petrol and diesel prices, triggered inflationary pressures, exposed structural weaknesses in energy infrastructure, and forced emergency government interventions from subsidy programs to national emergency declarations.
As the ceasefire teeters on the edge and the Strait of Hormuz remains a geopolitical flashpoint, African economies must navigate this uncertain landscape with strategic planning, increased investment in domestic refining capacity, diversification of energy imports, and active diplomatic engagement to mitigate the broader economic fallout of distant conflicts.
The African Union has called for sustained dialogue to secure lasting peace. Whether that peace holds will determine not only the fate of the Middle East but also the economic stability of millions across Africa.
Noah Ajare Esq