Angola is preparing for a significant rebound in oil production, with forecasts projecting a 6.5 percent surge to 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026, according to leading consulting firm Oxford Economics. The anticipated jump comes as newly commissioned projects from the third quarter of last year are expected to reach full operational capacity in the first half of this year.
The Southern African nation, which has struggled with declining production in recent years, recorded an average daily output of 1.07 million barrels in 2025. Despite falling short of monthly targets in December, when production averaged 1,027,844 barrels per day against a projected 1,080,238 barrels, the country managed to exceed export forecasts, shipping 1,137,359 barrels daily.
However, the production increase comes against a backdrop of challenging economic realities. Angola earned approximately $24.4 billion from oil exports in 2025, marking a sharp 22.16 percent decrease compared to 2024. The country sold an estimated 357.1 million barrels of crude oil during the year at an average price of $68.4 per barrel, down 14.19 percent from the previous year, according to Secretary of State for Oil and Gas José Barroso.
Oxford Economics analysts emphasized Angola’s continued heavy dependence on hydrocarbons, with oil exports accounting for nearly 20 percent of gross domestic product and around 50 percent of state revenue in 2024. “In the absence of viable alternatives to oil exports, the country has little option but to maintain production levels, even if global economic conditions result in lower export revenues,” the firm noted.
Export volumes declined by 9.28 percent compared to 2024, when Angola exported 396.6 million barrels. China remained the dominant buyer, accounting for 58.57 percent of exports, followed by India at 11 percent and Indonesia at 8.28 percent.
Source: angolanminingoilandgas.com