TRIPOLI — Libya’s first oil licensing round in more than 17 years — heralded as the country’s grand upstream revival — has ended in a sobering disappointment, with only 5 of the 22 offered blocks ultimately awarded and a long list of the world’s biggest oil companies declining to make binding commitments.
The round, launched by the National Oil Corporation (NOC) in March 2025, initially generated enormous buzz. Some 44 companies and one consortium applied, with 37 pre-qualified by July. Global heavyweights including Eni, TotalEnergies, BP, Repsol, OMV, QatarEnergy, Shell, Woodside, Lukoil, and CNPC’s subsidiary CNODC were all in the running. When results were announced on February 11, 2026, the outcome told a starkly different story.
Participation in the final bidding phase narrowed to just Chevron, ConocoPhillips, TotalEnergies, Eni, QatarEnergy, Repsol, Turkey’s TPAO, Hungary’s MOL, and Nigeria’s Aiteo. Of the five awarded blocks — two offshore and three onshore — the most fiercely contested was onshore Block S4 in the Sirte Basin’s Waha area, where Chevron beat out a TotalEnergies-ConocoPhillips consortium, marking a notable return by the US major that had withdrawn from Libya after the 2011 civil war. Repsol and TPAO jointly secured offshore Block 07 alongside MOL, as well as onshore Block C3. Eni and QatarEnergy won offshore Block 01, while Nigerian independent Aiteo claimed onshore Block M1 — its first upstream venture outside its home market.
Analysts say the thin outcome reflects Libya’s enduring structural contradictions. The internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli holds legal authority to grant contracts, while many producing assets in the Sirte Basin remain under the physical control of forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). Investors must sign with Tripoli for legal validity while navigating uncertain security arrangements with eastern authorities — a dual reality that has deterred many would-be bidders.
Contractual ambiguity added to the chill. While the 2025 round introduced improved fiscal terms — with internal rates of return reportedly rising to 35.8 per cent and state take falling to around 66 per cent — key provisions around force majeure, cost recovery, and investment stabilization remained unclear. The NOC’s eligibility criteria also required large existing reserves and production portfolios, effectively locking out smaller specialist operators better suited to the mature redevelopment-stage assets on offer.
Despite holding Africa’s largest proven oil reserves and having restored output to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, Libya’s NOC targets of reaching 2 million b/d by 2030 now look highly unrealistic. Even the five newly awarded blocks are unlikely to contribute meaningful production before the early-to-mid-2030s. A second licensing round is reportedly in preparation, but observers warn it will struggle to attract broader participation unless contractual clarity, asset-investor mismatches, and the country’s persistent security fragmentation are all addressed.
Source: Oilprice.com