Despite the challenges of the past year, the 650,000 barrels per day (BPD) Dangote Refinery is steadily approaching the completion of its first year of operations in a stable condition.
The refinery, developed by the Dangote Group, continues to prove its viability without government subsidies or import bans. Calls for nationalization of risks while keeping profits private have been dismissed, reinforcing the refinery’s strength as a purely private venture in a competitive market.
Dangote’s success stands out in a year when many of Africa’s refining promises remain unfulfilled. Angola’s Sonangol failed to launch its 30,000 BPD Cabinda refinery by July 2024, pushing the commissioning to April 2025, with full operation expected by July 2025. Its larger 100,000 BPD Soyo plant remains stagnant. In Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has yet to fully revive any of its three refineries, which collectively have a nameplate capacity of 445,000 BPD.
East Africa faces similar hurdles, as negotiations between Uganda and its new partners for the planned 60,000 BPD Kabaale refinery have dragged on for nearly a year. South Africa’s refining capacity has also declined, now standing at 200,000 BPD.
While Nigeria joins Algeria and Egypt in the race toward refining self-sufficiency, transforming Africa into a major refining hub remains a challenge. According to Anibor Kragha, Executive Secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA), Africa’s demand for petroleum products is projected to increase by 45–55% in the coming years.
“Dangote is not enough,” Kragha emphasizes. “By 2040, one in two people born globally will be African. By 2051, one in four people worldwide will live in Africa, with Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia ranking among the top 10 most populous countries. This makes Africa a massive market.”
Africa’s refining ambitions remain constrained, highlighting the need for more significant investments and streamlined policies to drive progress.
Source: Africa Oil & Gas Report
