Russia’s Geopolitical Games With Africa

After the first Russia-Africa summit held in October 2019, Russia
has not delivered on several bilateral agreements that were signed with
African countries. Moscow has not delivered on most of its pledges and
promises that usually characterized talks with African leaders over
these years. According to summit reports, 92 bilateral agreements were
pinned with a number of African countries. Russia is only passionate for
signing tonnes of agreements. A classical case was during the critical
period of coronavirus, Russia agreed to supply 300 million Sputnik
vaccines through the African Union but disappointed with delivery. It,
however, sprinkled few thousands to a couple of African countries to
muscle-flex its soft power.

Besides that, Russia’s
economic presence is hardly seen across Africa. There have been several
development-oriented initiatives over these years, but without tangible
results. As expected, these weaknesses were compiled and incorporated
in the ‘Situation Analytical Report’ by 25 policy researchers headed by
Professor Sergey Karaganov, dean of the Faculty of World Economy and
International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. 

The
report criticized Russia’s current policy and lukewarm approach towards
implementing bilateral agreements in Africa. It pointed to the lack of
coordination among various state and para-state institutions working
with Africa. According to the report, Russia plays very little role in
Africa’s infrastructure, agriculture and industry. This 150-page report
was presented in November 2021, which also offers new directions and
recommendations for improving policy methods and approaches with Africa.

On
the other side, anti-Western rhetoric and political confrontation has
become the main content of the foreign policy, instead of focusing on
its economic paradigms or directions within its capability to raise
economic influence in the continent. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s
early April interview with the local Russian news site Argumenty i Fakty
and copy posted on the Foreign Ministry’s website, vehemently
reiterated fears that the United States is attempting to wreck the
Russia-Africa summit. 

“Indeed, the United States
and its allies are doing all they can to isolate Russia internationally.
For example, they are trying to torpedo the second Russia-Africa Summit
scheduled to take place in St Petersburg in late July. They are trying
to dissuade our African friends from taking part in it,” the Russian top
diplomat said.

“However, there are fewer and
fewer volunteers willing to sacrifice their vital interests for
Washington and its henchmen and to pull the chestnuts out of the fire
for the former colonial powers,” Lavrov noted. “Attempts to undermine
our cooperation with the states of the global South and East will
persist, although their success is far from guaranteed,” he added.

Lavrov
said questions relating to the critical infrastructure development in
Africa were on agenda of forthcoming summit. Russia views the summit as
“a systemic element of Russia-Africa cooperation, and will be filling it
with meaningful content in close cooperation with African friends,”
Lavrov noted in the interview.

“Its agenda
includes such items as technology transfer and development of industry
and critical infrastructure in Africa. We are going to discuss in detail
Russia’s participation in projects on digitizing African states,
developing their power engineering, agriculture and mineral extraction,
and ensuring their food and energy security,” he further explained.

“I
believe that the summit will strengthen Russia-Africa cooperation,
provide a vector for the development of the entire range of relations
with Africa in a mid-term perspective, and make a tangible contribution
to the effective resolution of regional and international issues,”
Lavrov added.

Further down the interview, Sergey
Lavrov pointed to multifaceted and mutually advantageous cooperation
between Russia and Africa. Russia would continue ensuring national
security and sovereignty, continue building interstate cooperation on
the principles of international law, equality, mutual respect and
considerating both interests in Russia and Africa.

According
to several expert policy reports, Russia sees growing neo-colonial
tendencies as a threat to its participation in economic sectors in
Africa. It consistently attributes Africa’s economic instability,
development obstacles and pitfalls to the United States and its European
allies. But the U.S. State Department, in a statement, did not address
Lavrov’s accusations directly, but said Washington was pursuing strong
relationships with African countries “to address the shared challenges
we face. Our Africa policy is about Africa.”

The
statement quoted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as saying the
United States “(doesn’t) want to limit African partnerships with other
countries. We want to give African countries choices.” Shunned by most
Western countries since its invasion of Ukraine just over a year ago,
Moscow has turned its efforts to countries in Asia and Africa. Lavrov
has been particularly eager to nurture ties with Africa, visiting the
continent twice this year as well as making a tour in mid-2022.

In
terms of working with the African continent, experts usually say the
African continent remains little known in Russia. And Russia presence is
well-noted only for anti-Western rhetorics instead of concentrating on
what it could concretely do in Africa. It is struggling to regain
influence and win sympathy, but Russia has to be serious with policy
initiatives. It remains at the bottom level with its tourism, cultural
and people-to-people interactions often referred to as a essential part
of public diplomacy. It claims leading an emerging multipolar world
order which requires basic openness, interaction and integrative
approach to aspects of social life.

At the same
time, it expects and persuades Africans to simply sacrifice their
Western and European cultural connections and even ‘family ties’ for the
sake of friendship with Russia. It is a typical irrational step –
extremely difficult to do. How do you ask Africans to cut such
accumulated relations overnight. Historically, despite the negative
effects of slavery which everybody knows and also much criticized U.S.
hegemony, but African-American diaspora is closely-knitted by culture
and by blood, and now forms an undeniable core of the development
processes of both societies. 

Over the years,
African leaders have been engaging with their diasporas, especially
those excelling in sports, academia, business, science, technology,
engineering and other significant fields that the continent needs to
optimize its diverse potentials and to meet development priorities.
These professionals primarily leverage into various sectors, act as
bridges between the United States and Africa. As explicitly
acknowledged, the overarching efforts are to focus on deepening and
expanding the long-term US-Africa partnership and advancing shared
common priorities.

Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Vice
President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, argues that the great
resource that will enable Africa to cope with a rapidly changing world
is its diaspora. He asked African leaders, public and private
institutions, and businesses to take advantage of the diaspora outside
the continent, relate with them for their education and professional
skills for development inside Africa. He pointed to remittances from the
African diaspora, which is substantial, rising from $37 billion in 2010
to $96 billion by 2021, the African diaspora is a source of strength
for Africa.

As well-known the world is going
through a highly complex and somewhat confusing time. In addition to the
United States, there are China, Russia, the European Union, the UK,
India and Brazil as dominant regional powers. In comparison, China is
Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner and about $254 billion in
trade in 2021. That said, Africa has the United States and Europe, and a
number of Asian countries as the traditional markets for exports, earns
significant amount of revenue from those regions. 

Does
this situation mean the severing of all ties with the United States and
Europe? What is Russia’s market for Africa? What is the level of
Russia’s engagement especially in the industrial sector, development of
needed infrastructures and other relevant sectors for employment
creation in the continent? How much revenue do African countries earn
from Russia? Interestingly African leaders rather travel there with the
‘begging bowls’ and give ‘ear-deafening applause’ to offers of free
grains, while their own agricultural practices are rudimentary and vast
expanse of their land remains uncultivated.

Professor
Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy,
Research Director at the Valdai Discussion Club, and Editor-in-Chief of
Russia in Global Affairs journal, told this author in an interview that
Russia’s engagement depends largely on several factors. Notwithstanding
all that, Africa has its strengths and weaknesses based on history, but
the balance is positive in this emerging new world. Most of the
potential success (especially transforming the economy and raising trade
levels) depends on African countries themselves and their ability to
build up relations with outside powers on a rational and calculated
basis.

In comparison with other players, Russia
largely plays words to win support or sympathy and most often rattles
investment slogans with Africa. The United States, European Union
members, China, India, Turkey and even the Gulf States discuss Africa
from different perspectives, but more importantly follow their desires
and ways to establish their economic footprints on the continent. 

Reports
show that Russia has been strengthening its relations, meeting African
ministers and delegations these several years. It has even opened trade
missions with the responsibility of providing sustainable business
services in a number of African countries. In addition, more than a
decade since the establishment of the Coordinating Committee on Economic
Cooperation with Sub-Saharan Africa. There are also several Joint
Commissions on Trade and Economic Cooperation, and of course, there are
38 Russian diplomatic offices in Africa.

Across
Africa, when officials and experts are discussing the situation in
various sectors, hardly mention infrastructures undertaken, completed
and commissioned in the continent by Russians. A lot more important
issues have received little attention since the first African leaders’
gathering. Russia has little achievements and few success stories to
show at the next summit, according to another policy report by the South
African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), a reputable policy
think tank, published in 2022. 

The report noted
the dimensions of Russian power projection in Africa, new frontiers of
Russian influence and a roadmap towards understanding how Russia is
perceived in Africa. It highlighted narratives about anti-colonialism
and described how these sources of solidarity are transmitted by Russian
elites to the African public. For seeking long-term influence, Russian
elites have oftentimes used elements of anti-colonialism as part of the
current policy to control the perceptions of Africans and primarily as
new tactics for power projection in Africa.

In the
context of a multipolar geopolitical order, Russia’s image of
cooperation could be seen as highly enticing, but it is also based on
illusions. Better still, Russia’s posture is a clash between illusions
and reality. “Russia, it appears, is a neo-colonial power dressed in
anti-colonial clothes,” says the report.

Simply
put, Moscow’s strategic incapability, inconsistency and dominating
opaque relations are adversely affecting sustainable developments in
Africa. Thus far, Russia looks more like a ‘virtual great power’ than a
genuine challenger to European, American and Chinese influence.

The
next report titled – Russia’s Private Military Diplomacy in Africa:
High Risk, Low Reward, Limited Impact – says that Russia’s renewed
interest in Africa is driven by its quest for global power status. Few
expect Russia’s security engagement to bring peace and development to
countries with which it has security partnerships.

While
Moscow’s opportunistic use of private military diplomacy has allowed it
to gain a strategic foothold in partner countries successfully, the
lack of transparency in interactions, the limited scope of impact and
the high financial and diplomatic costs exposes the limitations of the
partnership in addressing the peace and development challenges of
African host countries, the report says.

Furthermore
African countries where Russia intends to assist to ensure peaceful
environment, will require comprehensive peace and development strategies
that include conflict resolution and peacebuilding, state-building,
security sector reform, and profound political reforms to improve
governance and the rule of law – not to mention sound economic planning
critical for attracting foreign direct investment needed to spur
economic growth.

Joseph Siegle, Director of
Research and Daniel Eizenga, Research Fellow at the Africa Center for
Strategic Studies, in series of articles these few years, offered
excellent comprehensive insights into possible reasons why military
governments delay to fast-track or hesitant in making smooth return to
constitutional government.  

The two researchers
reminded the African Union and ECOWAS to invoke the African Convention
for the Elimination of Mercenarism, which went into effect in 1985,
prohibiting states from allowing mercenaries into their territories.
Borrowing from its Syria playbook, Moscow has followed a pattern of
parachuting to prop up politically isolated leaders facing crises in
regionally pivotal countries, often with abundant natural resources. 

Many
African experts explained that the interim military leaders in Africa
are vacillating, turning down proposals to change over to constitutional
rule. Their decisions to remain in power absolutely violates “Silence
the Guns” policy adopted by the African Union. Holding media briefing
after talks with his Malian counterpart, Lavrov has often reiterated
that the threats posed by frequent terrorist attacks, it is not the best
time to hold democratic elections. It implies that Russia encourages
military rule in Africa and that “one should not change horses in the
middle of the stream,” according to official website sources.

Moreover,
this is one area in which the great powers and emerging powers can put
aside rivalries and work together with ECOWAS and the African Union on
an initiative to stamp out terrorism in Africa, especially in the Sahel.
Many simply forgets the fact that an outstandingly good example using
regional integration arrangements to promote peace and security on one
hand and pursue economic development, trade and industry on the other. 

During
the 36th Ordinary Session of the African Union (AU) held in Addis
Ababa, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopia (FDRE), interestingly used the phrase – “African solutions to
African problems” – seven times during his speech delivered on February
18. Besides that, he offered the suggestion that existing conflicts and
disputes on the continent, it necessary to mobilize collective efforts
to resolve them and “must be confined to this continent and quarantined
from the contamination of non-African interference.”

Notwithstanding
the current geopolitical games, African leaders have to utterly resist
the landscape being used as playing fields, leaders who adopt excellent
strategies could still benefit from all sides, especially not to join
the political confrontation but rather remain neutral. The perspectives,
decisions and actions of these global actors, including in multilateral
forums could impact on economic development across Africa. 

In
practical terms, what is needed today is systematic economic
transformation, industrialization and upgrading employment generating
sectors, therefore Africa can take full advantage of the global
complexities and uncertainties. With external players, the focus has to
be on practical economic diplomacy. The decisive factor in this context
will then be knowledgeable leadership  seriously committed to good
governance and economic development. 

Understandably,
Russia too has to clearly define its parameters despite the growth of
external player’s influence and presence in Africa. While Russia appears
consolidating relations, it is only full of symbolism, its policy model
(in distinctive opposite that of China and its passion for building
infrastructures across Africa) is characterized with bilateral
agreements without appreciably visible results. Yet, in this critical
times it strategically seeks enormous support, in any form, from
Africa’s regional organizations and from the African Union.

Despite
the current conditions of global changes the irreversible fact is that
Africa simply needs genuine external investors, without frequent
rhetorics and without geo-political slogans. Africa has already attained
its political independence and sovereignty, these sixty years in the
process of economic transformation. With its 1.3 billion population,
Africa is a potential market for all kinds of consumable goods and for
services. In the coming years, there will obviously be an accelerated
competition between or among the external players over access to the
resources and, of course, for economic influence in Africa.

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