Global crude oil prices have bounced back above the $65 per barrel mark, signaling a notable recovery for Brent and Nigerian oil blends after plummeting in early April.
Tracked by Brent, crude oil sank below $65 in early April from a monthly opening price of $74, losing over 15% amid escalating tariff disputes. Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his renewed support for reciprocal tariffs have fueled concerns that increasing global trade tensions could push the U.S. economy toward recession.
Consequently, the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 8% year-to-date, reflecting growing negative sentiment. While oil prices have traditionally maintained an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar, recent trends show a more synchronized movement between the two.
J.P. Morgan analysts note that as U.S. exports have risen—especially since 2022—fluctuations in oil prices have begun to affect the dollar more significantly, mirroring the impact seen on other major exporting nations. When the dollar falls, it now tends to drive global oil prices down, creating ripple effects across markets.
Nevertheless, as of April 20th, 2025, crude oil futures, including Brent and Nigerian blends, have rebounded by over 10%, rising past the $65 threshold and approaching the $70 mark.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil exports from the U.S. have been steadily increasing since 2021. In 2024, exports surpassed the previous record set in 2023, averaging over 4.1 million barrels per day—a 1% increase. Europe remains the largest recipient of U.S. oil, with exports averaging about 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024, followed by Asia and Oceania, then North and South America.
The traditional inverse relationship between the dollar and oil prices has weakened over time, suggesting that rising oil prices could now coincide with a strengthening dollar, reflecting a shift in global trade dynamics.
Global oil prices tracked by Brent Oil Futures have experienced a year-to-date decline of over 9% so far in 2025. Crude oil began the year at $74.93, reaching $82.03 on January 15—the highest recorded price for the year—before entering a downward trend. While there was a recovery in late March that pushed prices back to $74, mid-April saw another 15.87% drop. However, since April 9, 2025, crude has staged an 11% recovery as it approaches the $70 threshold once more.
Source: Naira Metrics
