An energy communication researcher has called on the Federal Government to demand strategic communication plans from oil producers and contractors, detailing phase-by-phase progress on the 3 million barrels oil production target set for 2030, warning that Nigeria’s per capita oil production will actually decline even if the ambitious goal is met. The stark assessment highlights a demographic reality that threatens to undermine the economic benefits of increased production.
Dr. Adeola Yusuf, Team Lead of Platforms Africa, made this call during a plenary session at the Nigeria International Energy Summit 2026, attended by Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) Heineken Lokpobiri and Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Mrs. Patience Oyekunle, as well as industry leaders. Speaking on the impact of storytelling in attracting investment in Nigeria and Africa’s energy transformation, Yusuf declared that research has shown policies and projects with phase-by-phase strategic communication have better success rates compared to those without proper communication.
Yusuf emphasized that Nigeria’s current per capita oil production will still be above the projected output in 2030, even if the target is met, highlighting the urgent need for strategic communication to achieve the goal. “With the current production of 1.6 million barrels daily as of today when the country’s population stands at around 200 million, the per capita oil production is 0.008 barrel per person compared to 0.007 barrel per person by 2030 when the country’s population is envisaged to hit 401 million people,” he explained.
The analysis reveals a sobering reality: as huge as the 3 million barrels daily production target appears, it will still represent a decline in per capita terms compared to current production of 1.6 million barrels daily. “This is a major reason we cannot still lag behind the target set by Mr. President, which is being rigorously pursued by the Honourable Minister,” Yusuf stated.
Discussing the outcome of his research work conducted on press coverage of the Presidential Accent to Petroleum Industry Bill between 2018 and 2021, Yusuf disclosed that findings showed progress on the bill was better communicated in the media in 2021 after passage and during the presidential accent to the bill in August 2021. President Muhammadu Buhari signed the PIB 2021 into law on August 16, 2021, following its passage by the National Assembly in July 2021, ending a long wait since the early 2000s.
However, progress on the bill was poorly communicated after passage in 2018 and the subsequent withholding of presidential accent to it in the same year was also met with official silence. The highlight of poor communication from the then policy makers showed that even when the president officially communicated to the National Assembly that he had declined accent to the bill, the whole nation and global investors were kept in the dark that such had happened.
Yusuf noted that on June 8, the Senate sent to the president for final assent into law the harmonised draft Bill earlier approved by the House of Representatives in January of the year. The decision was conveyed in separate presidential communications delivered to the leadership of the two Chambers of the National Assembly on July 29, 2018. The news, first reported by Platforms Africa and The Cable online, was later confirmed one month after by the aide to the president on Legislative matters, Senator Ita Enang, on August 29, 2018.
“This, compared to what we later experienced in 2021 showed the power of strategic communication in policy formation and actualization. Therefore, for Nigeria to meet its 3 million barrels daily production target in 2030, there should be a deliberate communication, both internally and externally, by those saddled with the responsibility about progress on the target,” Yusuf concluded.
Source: orientalnewsng.com