Nigeria has failed to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC crude oil production quota for the third straight month, according to the Monthly Oil Market Report released by the international oil cartel. The country’s output reached 1.401 million barrels per day in October, a marginal increase from 1.39 million barrels per day in September, but still below the assigned target.
The persistent shortfall poses significant challenges for Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and government revenue, as oil remains the country’s largest revenue source. The Nigerian 2025 budget assumed oil production of approximately 2.06 million barrels per day at a benchmark price of $75 per barrel, creating a substantial revenue gap that tightens fiscal space and forces heavier borrowing.
Nigeria last met its OPEC target in July 2025 when production hit 1.50 million barrels per day. The country averaged 1.444 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025, representing a decline from 1.481 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 1.468 million barrels per day in the first quarter.
The production challenges have been linked to pipeline vandalism, oil theft, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints affecting key oil projects. Despite intensified government surveillance and security along oil corridors, production levels have yet to reach pre-2020 levels when the country consistently exceeded 1.8 million barrels per day.
In October, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, announced plans to formally request OPEC to raise Nigeria’s production quota to 2 million barrels per day, citing recent developments including the deployment of new drilling rigs, revival of dormant oil fields, and fresh investments by international oil companies.
Sources: thisdaylive.com, nairametrics.com