Libya Faces New Oil Blockade Threats Despite Production Expansion Plans
Libya’s ambitious plans to boost oil production to 2 million barrels per day by 2028 face significant challenges as political instability threatens to derail progress and potentially trigger new production blockades. The country’s Strategic Programs Office had been advancing plans to increase output from the current 1.4 million barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day within a year, followed by the 2 million barrel target by 2028-29.
The optimistic outlook was supported by Libya’s first oil exploration bidding round in over 17 years, featuring 22 areas across the country. The bidding process has attracted more than 40 applicants, including major international firms such as ConocoPhillips, which currently operates the Waha concession. European companies including Italy’s Eni, Spain’s Repsol, Austria’s OMV, and the UK’s BP have also expressed interest, particularly as they seek alternatives to Russian supplies.
However, rising political tensions threaten to derail these plans. The assassination of militia leader Abdul Ghani al-Kiklii in May has escalated conflicts between rival factions, with eastern-backed forces potentially challenging Tripoli’s control over oil revenues. The situation echoes previous blockades, including the costly shutdown from January to September 2020 that cost Libya at least $9.8 billion in lost hydrocarbon revenues.
The lack of a sustainable revenue-sharing agreement between Libya’s competing governments remains a critical obstacle. Despite a 2020 agreement to establish a joint technical committee for fair resource distribution, implementation has stalled due to various domestic and international disruptive elements.
Source: en.minbarlibya.org