Mauritania has announced more than $100 billion worth of natural gas and green hydrogen projects since 2021, but only one has made it from announcement to steel in the ground. Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA), the cross-border liquefied natural gas project operated by bp and Kosmos Energy at a cost of approximately $4.8 billion, reached its final investment decision in 2018 and began commercial operations in 2025. Everything else remains on paper.
GTA’s financing closed when global interest rates were near historic lows and before security across the Sahel had deteriorated to its current state. The projects that sit behind it in the pipeline must raise capital on terms that bear little resemblance to those conditions. They include the BirAllah gas field — estimated to hold between 60 and 80 trillion cubic feet of gas and without an operator since bp stepped back in 2024 — alongside a portfolio of green hydrogen developments that have yet to reach a final investment decision.
Two structural problems separate Mauritania’s announcements from committed capital. The first is the cost of capital itself. Interest rates rose sharply in 2022 and 2023 and have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. African energy projects already carry risk premiums linked to political and security conditions, making lenders far more selective on the long-dated commitments that infrastructure of this scale requires.
The second challenge is Mauritania’s own readiness to absorb and enable investment at that magnitude. Dr Stefan Kaufmann, the German government’s former green hydrogen commissioner and now an adviser to steel manufacturer thyssenkrupp, is direct on the point. “You need a World Bank or somebody behind the projects for the de-risking,” he said, adding that while Mauritania has energy, land and government commitment, it lacks the foundational infrastructure to translate those assets into bankable projects. “You don’t have enough roads, you don’t have university [training],” he noted. The country’s principal commercial port only began reconstruction in 2025 and is at least five years from completion.
Development finance institutions have attempted to close the cost-of-capital gap. The African Development Bank and the EU’s Team Europe initiative have funded auction frameworks and technical support, but capital at the scale Mauritania requires — tens of billions of dollars — demands commercial lenders and private equity, not just concessional finance.
GTA itself provides a counterpoint to pessimism. Phase 1 is producing above its 2.7-million-tonne nameplate capacity, and operator Kosmos is targeting between 32 and 36 cargo liftings in 2026 as discussions with bp over Phase 2 continue. The field demonstrates that Mauritania can execute once financing is in place. Kaufmann also noted that European steelmakers — thyssenkrupp among them — are evaluating imports of hydrogen-reduced iron produced in Mauritania, a potential offtake commitment that could anchor project financing for some of the green hydrogen developments.
Whether the remaining $100 billion pipeline is ever built depends on whether developers can assemble the same combination of offtake agreements and institutional backing that closed GTA — in a financing environment that is fundamentally different, and under security conditions that are meaningfully worse.
Source: prospect-intel.com