Africa: Why Changing Presidential Term Limits Is a Threat to Peace and Security

Johannesburg — It was not long after President Blaise Compaore of Burkina Faso announced his plan to amend the constitution which would extend his grip on power that mass protests broke out in the capital city of Ouagadougou, and action rights groups, civil society and international community led to his resignation on October 31, 2014.

Compaore had seized power in a coup in 1987 shortly after Thomas Sankara was gunned down by a hit squad. One would think after holding onto power for 27 years he had fulfilled all his presidential wishes and prepared a peaceful transition. Clearly this was not the case, as it has been with far too many African presidents who have gone down the same road.

Then in 2015 Rwanda’s parliament approved a Constitutional amendment to allow President Paul Kagame to seek a third term which allowed him to run for the 2017 elections. Kagame is currently on year four of his seven years, but then also qualifies for two five-year terms which could possibly keep him in power until 2034.

Trends like these have unfortunately increased in a number of African countries where leaders have moved to undermine term limits or rig elections to remain in power.

In 2020 Alpha Condé of Guinea and Alassane Ouattara of Côte d’Ivoire followed in the footsteps of leaders that have changed their countries’ constitutions, like Azali Assoumani of the Comoros, Paul Biya of Cameroon, Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo, and Djibouti’s Ismail Guelleh who has been in office since 1999, Togo’s Faure Gnassingbé, the late Idriss Déby of Chad, the late Pierre Nkurunziza from Burundi, and Egypt’s Abd Al-Fattah el-Sisi..

There’s also been a worrisome series of coups that swept through several West African countries. Over about two years, leaders were removed by coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Sudan for various reasons – lack of respect for human rights, inability to provide public services, particularly security, education and health, among others.

The Botswana government in partnership with the U.S.-based National Democratic Institute (NDI) hosted the second three-day Constitutional Term Limits Summit to address these challenges, and also strengthen good governance and democracy in Africa. The Gaborone meeting was a follow-up to the October 2019 summit held in Niamey, the capital of Niger, and was attended by military officials, lawmakers and leaders.

“History has shown that democracy is essential for sustained peace, security and human development. Democracy must be protected, defended, cultivated through regular civic practice and education, never taken for granted and forever refreshed from generation to generation. Respect for constitutionalism promotes rule of law and political accountability, term limits in particular by facilitating regular transitions of power, help prevent sustained concentrations of political and economic authority that will gradually and inevitably undermine democracy,” said NDI President Derek Mitchell.

“Constitutional principles including term limits also mitigate the risk of violence and national decline. Studies have shown that countries with regular, credible, transparent and inclusive elections are more stable, perform better economically and enable their people to flourish over the long run. Where the political process is open for all, the contributions of all – women, young people and other groups, unlock a nation’s full potential,” Mitchell said.

According to the African Union women make up about 50% of the African population but they remain largely underrepresented in leadership roles across financial, investment and entrepreneurial markets. When it comes to politics and leadership, Rwanda leads the world with the number of women MPs, 61% of members of the country’s legislature are women.

“Africa has not done badly, I say this because we have had six women serving as presidents against all odds, I happen to know that there are some continents with over 200-year democracies who are still struggling to get one woman in office. And this has happened because of our history, African women have led their nations even before colonization. What women are saying now that they want to participate more in leadership and in policy formulating tables is not coming out of the blue. It is in fact when you read that colonization is what delayed us. As you would recall when Kwame Nkuma, Jomo Kenyatta and others started fighting for independence, women stood to the occasion, the Winnie Mandelas, Albertina Sisulus who fought side to side with their brothers. All we are saying is that we are here, ready and just on time for us to take up leadership,” said Joyce Banda, the former president of Malawi.

Banda made history when she become Malawi’s first female president in 2012 and only the second woman to lead a country in Africa. She has been vocal over the years about inclusive leadership and fighting corruption. In 2017 she was accused of corruption over an alleged abuse of office and money-laundering offenses as part of the U.S.$250 “Cashgate” scandal, which erupted during her 2012-2014 term of office. She denied the accusations saying it was a smear campaign launched against her for shaking up the status quo.

“As Vice President Kamala Harris reminded us, “The status of women is the status of democracy.” As such, the United States launched the Supporting Her Empowerment: Political Engagement, Rights, Safety, and Inclusion Strategies to Succeed initiative. This will support women’s political participation and empowerment to build and sustain good governance and lasting democracy globally. This is a key component of the United States’ Advancing Women’s and Girls’ Civic and Political Leadership Initiative, under which the United States pledged up to $33.5 million,” said U.S. Department of State’s Uzra Zeya, under secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights.

Why Are Term Limits Important?

Leaders who cling on to power have often been accused of corruption, being dictators and rigging elections which usually results in violent protests and instability. This happened in Uganda where 77-year-old President Yoweri Museveni has been in office since 1986. In November 2020, ahead of the national elections, protesters took to the streets to protest against the arrest of the opposition leader, Robert Kyagulanyi (better known as singer Bobi Wine) who came out strongly against the term-limit Constitutional amendment. During the demonstrations, more than 50 people were shot dead. But that didn’t stop the march of Museveni’s government, and the presidential Age Limit Bill was passed to scrap the limit of 75 years.

“Accountability plus transparency equals trust”

“As elected representatives, we can only build trust with voters when we are transparent and accountable – hence my mantra: Accountability plus transparency equals trust. Without effective governance, including accountability and transparency, the future of democracy and constitutionalism is bleak. We are not big men imposing our will on citizens through force or the barrel of the gun. On the contrary, we come through the ballot paper, the ‘weapon’ of choice for the third wave of African leaders,” said President of Namibia Hage Geingob.

Democracy allows for free and fair elections, it also allows citizens to be free to speak against their leaders without the fear of being arrested. It also allows them to be free to choose who their leaders should be. What happens then when ‘big men’ impose their own will on citizens?

In many countries where these amendments have taken effect, citizens protest them. In Cameroon before the constitution was changed, hundreds took to the street to protest against the amendment. Those arrested during protests were summarily tried and thrown in jail. Armed forces patrolled towns and highways to ensure that no further prospect of open resistance would happen while blocking independent media houses that usually allowed contrary views to be expressed. In 2008 term limits were removed from the constitution allowing president Paul Biya to serve indefinitely. Biya has been in power since 1982, at age 89, he is the oldest president in Africa.

Despite leaders saying that the people want them to stay longer than two terms, a survey done by Afrobarometer indicates that leaders who stay for more than two terms are not what the people want. This study done in 34 African countries found that an average of 76% favor limiting their presidents to two terms, including a majority which is 54% who strongly support this rule. In Angola only 37% of the population interviewed supported democracy, in South Africa it was 40%, eSwatini 49% and Mozambique 49%.

Afrobarometer data suggests possible plausible explanations for these decline in popular demand for democracy, they seem to be driven primarily by failure to deliver on popular expectations for democratic accountable and responsive governance. In some countries like Mali shows steady levels of popular demand for democracy 9% point increase between 2011 and 2020 and rejection of non democratic alternatives including military rule. But supply levels have dropped from 24% in 2011 to 15% in 2020.